Merge pull request #96 from The-Strategy-Unit/Josh-Cook3/issue95

Update methodology.qmd

modelling_methodology/methodology.qmd

@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ In other situations, a patient may need a hospital service of some type during t
 Hospital activity arises from the demands and needs of its catchment population. As the size, age-sex structure and age-sex specific health status changes of this population changes, so will levels of healthcare need and demand.  In this component of the model engine, users will be able to specify changes in these factors between the baseline and some future period.
 
 ### Non-demographic changes
-Healthcare need and demand might also change as a result of a series of non-demographic factors.  As medical technologies develop, medical conditions become treatable, and the technology becomes available to a wider set of patients.  Clinical standards may change what is acceptable or best-practice care.  And patient expectation may rise, increasing demand for a particular service or intervention.  This element of the model engine allows users to specify such changes that they anticipate over the modelling horizon.
+Healthcare need and demand might also change as a result of a series of non-demographic factors.  As medical technologies develop, medical conditions become treatable, and the technology becomes available to a wider set of patients.  Clinical standards may change what is acceptable or best-practice care.  And patient expectation may rise, increasing demand for a particular service or intervention.  This element of the model engine therefore accounts for anticipated changes in activity which are NOT due to changes in the size and age-sex structure of the population over time. The adjustment applied is based on detailed analysis and no user inputs are required – further information can be found [here](non-demographic_growth.qmd).
 
 ### Activity mitigators
 Hospital trusts and local health systems frequently plan to reduce hospital activity or resource use, by improving efficiency, diverting patients to receive care in more local settings outside of hospital, by preventing needs upstream or by restricting access to low-value procedures.  The component of the model allows users to adjust specific forms of hospital activity or resource use that commonly form the focus of these schemes.