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Proposing a change to some language which confused me a little. As far as I understand it, the y-axis on the CDF isn't the probability of an Obama win, it's the (cumulative) probability of his getting a certain number of electoral votes. The probability of winning the election is a binary thing in our simplified model of reality: 0% if votes are < 270 and 100% if votes are >= 270
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Proposing a change to some language which confused me a little.
As far as I understand it, the y-axis on the CDF isn't the probability of an Obama win, it's the (cumulative) probability of his getting a certain number of electoral votes. The probability of winning the election is a binary thing in our simplified model of reality: 0% if votes are < 270 and 100% if votes are >= 270